Re: How Many Emacs Users?

[Joe Corneli <jcorneli@math.utexas.edu>]

Answer: One million, four hundred and fourty three thousand, three
hundred and thirty three.


Demonstration.

4,330,000 = magnitude of google(emacs).

1. Assume that each page has exactly one author.

2. Note that the pages need not be authored by distinct individuals.

3. Also, not every page will have been authored by an emacs user.

4. However, not every emacs user will have authored a web page that
talks about emacs.


Weight (3) and (4).  Assume that half of the pages were written by
non-Emacs users.  Furthermore, assume that for every 3 non-users who
wrote a webpage, there will be 1 user who didn't write a webpage.

Weight (2).  Assume every person who has written a webpage has
actually written 2 webpages on average.

Weight (1).  This is too complicated to deal with properly, so the
assumption stands.


By (2) we have (/ 4330000 2) = 2165000 = number of distinct authors.

By (3) we have (/ 2165000 2) = 1082500 = number of pages written by
emacs users (or nonusers).

By (4) we have (/ 1082500 3) = 360833 = number of emacs users who
didn't write pages.

Answer is (+ 1082500 360833) = 1443333


Scholium.

If you don't like this number, you can adjust the weights according
to your own personal value system.  I actually think it is likely to
overestimate by a factor of about 2.5 to 3 (mostly because of
underweighting assumption 3). Numerology aside, my personal view is
that the figure should be between half a million and a million.